With 81 of 2,472 delegates (and needing 1,237 to win), Trump has locked up the Republican nomination for President.
How can I say that?
I’m going to let you in on a few secrets the Washington Republican Establishment types and lobbyists know but won’t tell you, the tax paying voter.
Secret #1: The American Idol Factor
I don’t know if you ever watched American Idol. Or for that matter, The Voice. Basically you have people competing for viewer’s votes as to who the best singer is.
And if you’ve seen enough musical performers you know there are varying levels of talent. And those who make it big often aren’t the most talented. They are just the one who got the right breaks at the right time. And they took off.
So back to the American Idol reference. As they winnow down the field to the top 10 or 12 you’ll get to the point where about half the field has a unique niche with their own fan base. And then there are others who share a fan base with other performers. Maybe it is the powerfully accurate voice singers. Or the country artist. Or the cute teenage girl singers. Or the cute boys.
You name it, there is always overlap. So what happens is either one or both of them go out at the same time. Why? Because they were splitting that genre’s vote count. But if one falls out early, then there is an opportunity for that person who remains to differentiate themselves from the field.
That is what we’re seeing right now. It is Establishment vs Anti-establishment. And Anti-establishment is winning. The problem was establishment is not the draw this time. And on top of that you had a ton of establishment candidates – Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie, Santorum, Huckabee.
So they fought among themselves for supremacy of the establishment vote. Rubio and Kasich are left but in the meantime Trump has established a lead.
The same thing happened in the anti-establishment camp. Trump, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina, Paul. Trump had Winning and Taking Back America and the Wall. Cruz had pure conservatives and the Constitution. Carson had the calm thinking man who was brilliant. Fiorina had the woman who can take on Hillary mantra. And Paul had the “we want government out of our lives” vote.
And Trump beat them all to a pulp. The only one who held up reasonably was Cruz. But then he got battered from Rubio because Rubio saw that he couldn’t win a three up race.
Secret #2: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Effect
I’m not saying who’s who. But if you remember the final scene in that movie, all three gunslingers are trying to figure out which other one to shoot first so they can get the gold for themself. It is kind of that way here
Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all believe they are the only one who can beat Donald Trump. Cruz because he’s done it in Iowa. Rubio because he’s establishment and can get Trump’s haters. And Kasich because he says he is the only one who can beat Trump one-on-one.
But because each of the three think they are the only one who can beat Trump, none will drop out (like the delayed shootout in the movie). And that all but assures Trump will win (because he’s wrapping up wins while they’re whistling Dixie).
Secret #3: Castles Built on Sand Will Still Crumble
In politics, fallacious arguments abound. It is a logician’s dream. For instance, Rubio made the case that if you take all the people not voting for Trump and if it was Trump vs Rubio, Rubio would pick up the non-Trump votes and beat Trump.
Now if you just came out of the womb (or our decrepit public education system) you might think that makes sense. Okay, so if Trump won 46% and everyone else gets 54%, that would technically be correct.
But the assumption that Rubio gets all of Cruz and Kasich and Carson’s voters?
Why would they go to Rubio?
Cruz’s supporters are anti-establishment so they are much more likely to go to Trump than Rubio.
Kasich’s supporters would likely go to Rubio because they’re both establishment types. But maybe not (see the next secret).
Carson’s voters could go either way. But he doesn’t have many anyway. So it is kind of a moot point.
The net result is Rubio is selling a pipe dream right now. And the other three candidates fighting for position aren’t going anywhere. And are going to continue to take votes away from Rubio.
So lets move on to the next secret.
Secret #4: Momentum Matters
You’ve seen it. Bush gets pummeled. Then pummeled some more. And he keeps moving lower and lower in the polls until he loses enough and pulls the plug (after he enjoys the lavish campaign lifestyle his big donor supporters’ money provides).
You see it with Hillary barely edging Sanders but with each win she gains in the next race.
You saw it with Rubio when he had his robot line (repeating the same line 4 times when Christie called him on it) and then saw his support crater.
People just sense it and respond accordingly with their votes.
On to the next…
Secret #5: People Want to Win and Ride With Winners
You hear it all the time with elections. After the results come out, the usual water cooler questions follow. Who did you vote for? So you can either lie or tell the truth…or mumble something as you walk away.
The interesting thing is people don’t like being associated with losers or stupid people. So if you’re going to vote for someone, you are either passionate about that person or the cause. Or you vote for who makes the most sense to you. And for those making up their mind at or near the voting booth, these are the thoughts they are having but never acknowledge.
“Am I wasting my vote voting for this person?”
“Am I proud of my vote for this person?”
“Can this person win?”
“Can I say, I voted for this person?”
Let me say it again.
PEOPLE LIKE WINNERS
And people like to be associated with winners.
So people will vote for winners. Particularly when the winners are already known (like now).
What is another example of this?
Look at the campaign operatives. When someone suspends their campaign, what do you see? Rats fleeing the ship before it sinks. They start finding new jobs. And where do they start? With the ones who are winning. They want the political appointments in the administration. They don’t want to be out of work for four to eight years. So they go where the winners are.
And what about the donors? They do the same. They cut off their money to the losers and move their money to those who will be in power and have the position to reciprocate the favors.
So why do I think…let me correct…why do I know Trump will win the nomination?
He has a bullet-proof niche that none of his competitors can counter. He has momentum on his side. And he wins.
It is that simple.