Tonight Trump won Indiana, Cruz dropped out, and nomination is locked up.
So in celebration of Trump’s big victory and why he’ll do the same in the general election, here’s some of the posts I’ve written about the Trump Phenomenon over this nomination cycle.
Hopefully you’ll understand what has made Trump’s campaign work when there were so many who doubted or couldn’t see beyond the conventional wisdom or politics as usual (which went out the window in this campaign season).
Here you see the early disdain for Trump’s approach and his early versions of attacking the character of those who say bad things about him. In this case it is Senator McCain. This is also one of the first examples where the commentators are shocked that there isn’t more of a backlash showing up in the polls.
After showing his early staying power, the establishment starts to get nervous. And so the first Fox debate brings out “The Pledge”. They ask who won’t pledge to support the eventual nominee of the Republican Party. Trump is the only one who raises his hand. This became an eventual wedge issue between Trump and the Republican Establishment. A bargaining chip that Trump used to his advantage throughout the campaign both to keep the opposition off balance and to keep him in the news cycles.
This article walks you through the persuasion principles that Trump was using in his campaign to great effect. Principles that all politicians use but Trump took it to a new level and applied it from a different tack.
How Trump got Carson to support his position and renegotiate the terms of the CNBC debate. An interesting look at a high level negotiation. And how trump has learned to use the media to get his way.
A look at Trumps ventures – successes and failures. This was a big issue that the media and his competitors for the nomination tried to play. But everyone knew Trump had successes and failures. They didn’t really care about that as evidenced by his continued victories. They wanted someone who was willing to take the bull by the horns and knew the good and bad of business and was willing to get messy.
Trump got the brand out early, “Make America Great Again!” Simple, to the point, and something with a strong emotional connection after eight years of Obama. Here I compare the front-runner brands.
And finally, how the nomination was locked up. Now to be fair, Trump had some missteps after this post came out. And he could have imploded. But like a good negotiator and businessman, he learned from his mistakes and got better advisers to help him through that rough patch and then kept on winning.
Some of the biggest takeaways I got from this process was…
Just because a poll shows you’re losing doesn’t make it happen.
- Polls are wrong – sometimes the data they’re based on or the assumptions from the data are just not accurate. This was proven over and over in a large chunk of the state races.
- Polls will change as momentum shifts – people can be persuaded by new information and momentum changes.
- You can’t extrapolate that when someone drops out of the race that all their voters will go to someone else. I can’t count how many times a pundit said that someone who dropped out would have their votes go to anyone but Trump. When Trump started getting over 50% of the votes on a regular basis, that notion went out the window.
America IS fed up with the business as usual climate of Washington.
- They’re tired of not being listened to.
- They want jobs. And good paying jobs.
- They’re tired of everyone else’s interest in the world being put before ours.
- They’re not stupid and sick of politicians manipulating them.
- They aren’t voting blocks that vote like robots. They can see beyond their particular group.
- They want to be part of a movement (both Trump and Sanders played this to great effect).
So how will things go between Trump and Clinton? Hillary starts with a lead but that could have been said in the Republican nomination contest early on too. But with quite a few months to go, that will surely shift. Will Trump win? Will Clinton win? Only time will tell.
But it will be a fun race to watch.